The worst Uptober ever: a sign of things to come?

TL;DR Macro set the mood: the hosts discussed US–China headlines, a widely expected 25 bps Fed cut and a cooler CPI print alongside a mixed earnings season. Crypto = range city: BTC and ETH both sat between big support and big resistance , producing fake-outs in both directions. Alts: First things first : Alts got absolutely murdered and chart structures have not yet been fixed. So pick your spots: with sentiment bruised after the Oct 10 liquidations, outliers with clean narratives (e.g., ZEC, HYPE, TAO ) drew the focus while newer names ( XPL ) showed how unforgiving this tape can be. Playbook: stay objective, trade the range, let leaders confirm strength and keep risk tight until the market chooses a direction . This is a good time to get comfortable with trading less. Vibe check October is often “Uptober,” but this one felt more like Down-tober . After the Oct 10 flush and a lot of chop since, the big question on the space: was it just coming up for air or did it mark a warning for the rest of the year? Macro in a minute US–China: rising trade-tension headlines framed Oct 10’s wobble; recent diplomacy cooled things a touch, but sentiment remains cautious. The Fed: a highly priced-in 25 bps cut landed, but Chair Powell’s “ December isn’t a foregone conclusion ” tone clipped risk appetite. Data and earnings: a delayed CPI came in softer; bank results started strong; big tech was mixed; crypto-adjacent names ( Coinbase, MicroStrategy ) printed decent numbers. AI remains the equity market’s locomotive. Bottom line: the macro backdrop leans constructive , but the path is jagged . “It doesn’t want to go up, but it’s not going down either. So… we’re chopping.” BTC: respect the range Higher-timeframe lens: through this cycle, BTC has often based around the 3-day 100EMA . We’ve logged about three weeks ping-ponging in that neighborhood. Structure: every dip into the support band has bounced, yet pushes into ~114–116 have repeatedly faded. What would help Bullish: reclaim the EMA cluster and hold above ~116 (roughly mid-range) to show trend intent. Bearish: a clean break and time spent below the June-low area (~ high-90s/low-100s ) without swift buy-back would dent the cycle case. Read: it’s a range. Treat it like one. ETH: same song, slightly softer Correlation with BTC remains high, but ETH’s structure looked a touch weaker on the Space: reclaim attempts have been less convincing, and EMAs still point down. Do business where it’s clean — either a proper flush and reclaim of obvious lows or a decisive EMA flip back up. Until then, patience. Alts: narratives or nothing Context: Oct 10 underscored the lack of bids down the tail. With majors undecided, broad “max-long alts” is not the base case. How the hosts bucketed things: Most alts — broke structure on Oct 10 and are lingering near lows without leadership. New launches (e.g., XPL) — harsh lesson in how unforgiving the current tape is. Clean-narrative outliers — still tradable with discipline: ZEC (Zcash): textbook strength out of a long consolidation; respected MAs even through the dump. Coming into multi-year resistance (2017/2021 reference points). No hero shorts; longs must accept rug-risk at inflection. HYPE: range-respecting outperformer. Attempts above range high failed cleanly; now mid-range retest is the tell. Leaders like this often front-run risk-on or warn when they can’t reclaim. TAO: strong relative trend; mid-range + yearly open acting as the gate. A hold or reclaim signals “risk can expand.” A deviate-and-fail says “not yet.” “If the outperformers can’t break out or hold support, the rest probably isn’t worth your attention.” Levels and triggers the hosts are watching BTC Support: the post-flush base area (the hosts’ composite around 106 repeatedly defended) and the June-low zone (~ high-90s/low-100s ). Resistance: the EMA stack and ~116 (mid-range). ETH Similar map: clustered EMA resistance + HTF range resistance + Q/O overhead; interest only on a clean sweep and reclaim lower down or a decisive flip back to uptrend. Leaders (ZEC / HYPE / TAO) ZEC at multi-year supply HYPE around mid-range TAO battling mid-range + yearly open Trading playbook Accept the regime: it’s range and chop until the market proves otherwise. Be selective: IF you trade , favor leaders with narratives over “everything beta.” Let price speak: wait for reclaims , closes and time-based confirmation ; avoid anticipating breakouts. Defensive sizing: keep risk tight and take profits ; this tape punishes overstaying. What’s next November often skews constructive, but October reminded us that seasonality isn’t a guarantee . With less fresh data flow and lingering macro watch-items, focus on levels , leadership and how quickly dips get bought or tops get sold . “Stay objective. It’s chop until it isn’t.” Watch the replay & follow along Catch the full replay on YouTube: Housekeeping Thanks to everyone who joined live and on the replay. Trading Spaces runs every two weeks . Follow @krakenfx , @krakenpro and @Dentoshi for stream times, charts and highlights. Trade with Dentoshi on Kraken Pro The post The worst Uptober ever: a sign of things to come? appeared first on Kraken Blog .

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