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When Will The Crypto Market Surge Again? Experts Predict The Timeline

The question dominating crypto desks this week is whether the cycle is intact, and when the bull run will return. Two widely followed macro commentators sketched the same causal chain from public-sector cash management to crypto asset beta, arguing that the current drawdown is a liquidity story first and a sentiment story second—and that its reversal hinges on the mechanics of the US Treasury General Account (TGA), Federal Reserve balance-sheet policy, and the timing of Washington’s reopening. Crypto Market Awaits US Government Shutdown Resolution Macro analyst @plur_daddy on X summarizes the current state bluntly: “We are seeing the contraction in liquidity flowing through into risk markets. Naturally it first showed up in BTC and market internals within equities, and now is finally hitting the broader indices.” He describes a textbook quality rotation underway—speculative thematics “such as quantum, nuclear, drones, and alt energy have been getting destroyed,” while flows consolidate into the megacap cohort and earnings-backed momentum, notably the AI capex complex. The underlying plumbing, in his reading, is starved of bank reserves as cash piles into the TGA and quantitative tightening (QT) continues to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. “Monetary liquidity is drawing down as the TGA has become overfilled beyond the Treasury Dept’s $850bn cap, due to mechanical factors around higher issuance, timing of specific payments, and the government shutdown. There is a broader lack of bank reserves which continues to fall below the key $3trn threshold.” His conclusion is conditional but clear: these stresses “will precipitate actions to calm market plumbing but it will take time.” Related Reading: Caution In The Crypto Market: Expert Warns Of Bearish Phase Unfolding This November On the dollar and cross-asset risk, he points to a crucial level: “The DXY has been rallying and is now approaching a key level at 101, which would be a logical point for it to top. I continue to believe the Trump administration wants a lower dollar.” The path to a crypto bottom, in his cadence, is explicitly tied to policy milestones: “The government reopening provides a clear catalyst to mark the bottom in liquidity conditions. Then, we get QT unwinding Dec 1 and then potentially more Fed actions (such as hints on bills repurchases) on Dec 10. The fiscal deficit will expand significantly starting Jan 1 as the OBBBA will fully kick in.” He characterizes Bitcoin’s behavior as resilient—“BTC has held in well despite tremendous OG selling, the aftermath of 10/10, and the factors above”—and describes his own playbook accordingly: “I currently have a sizable cash position and plan to aggressively add equities (especially the memory trade) and BTC once the government reopening looks imminent.” Hours later he added, “Bought some BTC. Seeing progress being made towards government reopening and signs that liquidity headwinds have peaked. Risk/reward here is strong with sentiment bombed out.” When The Liquidity Returns Raoul Pal, whose framework centers almost entirely on the global liquidity cycle, pushes the same thesis to its logical macro conclusion. “If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that,” he writes, before distilling the next year of market structure into a single constraint: “REMEMBER — THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.” In Pal’s telling, the shutdown’s effect is immediate and mechanical—“the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it. This is not offset by the ability to drain the Reverse Repo (it is drained). And QT drains it further”—and crypto, as the highest-beta liquidity asset, takes the brunt. The pivot, he argues, is likewise mechanical once fiscal operations restart: “As soon as the gov shutdown ends, the Treasury begins spending $250bn to $350bn in a couple of months. QT ends and the balance sheet technically expands. The Dollar will likely begin to weaken again as liquidity begins to flow.” Related Reading: Crypto Isn’t Topping Yet: Arthur Hayes Says Stealth QE Is Near He layers on prospective policy and regulatory catalysts—“SLR changes free up more of the banks balance sheets allowing for credit expansion. The CLARITY Act will get passed, giving the crypto regs so desperately needed for large scale adoption by banks, asset managers and businesses overall. The Big Beautiful Bill then kicks in to goose the economy into the midterms”—and frames the global backdrop as additive, with China’s balance-sheet expansion and Japan’s policy mix supporting a broader risk rally. His tactical advice is to accept bull-market volatility without over-reacting: “Always remember the Dont Fuck This Up rules… and wait out the volatility. Drawdowns like this are common place in bull markets and their job is to test your faith. BTFD if you can.” The punchline comes down to a single indicator within his dashboard: “td:dr — When this number goes up, all numbers go up.” The through-line across both perspectives is the primacy of dollar liquidity—specifically, the interaction of Treasury cash balances, Fed asset purchases or run-off, and the available stock of bank reserves after the Reverse Repo Program has largely normalized. When the TGA rises without offset, it functions as a suction pump on aggregate reserves; when it falls as the Treasury spends, reserves rebuild, the marginal cost of leverage eases, and high-beta assets—crypto first—tend to outperform. Where does that leave the timing question implied by every red candle on crypto Twitter? Neither source offers a date, but both tether the next leg higher to the same sequence: a resolution in Washington that flips the TGA from hoarding to spending, visible easing in reserve scarcity as QT pauses or is unwound, a swerve lower in the dollar from resistance, and renewed fiscal impulse that re-steepens the growth impulse into 2026. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.38 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com Bitcoin World

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Incredible Bitcoin Salary Success: Miami Mayor Gains 300% Returns Over Four Years

BitcoinWorld Incredible Bitcoin Salary Success: Miami Mayor Gains 300% Returns Over Four Years Imagine receiving your salary in Bitcoin and watching it grow by 300% over four years. That’s exactly what happened to Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who made headlines by converting his entire compensation into cryptocurrency. This bold move has paid off spectacularly, demonstrating the potential of Bitcoin salary arrangements for forward-thinking individuals. How Did the Miami Mayor’s Bitcoin Salary Strategy Work? Mayor Francis Suarez began his Bitcoin salary journey when the cryptocurrency was trading around $30,000. He committed to receiving his entire compensation in Bitcoin, a decision that required significant conviction in digital assets. This approach to Bitcoin salary payments represents a growing trend among public figures and tech-savvy professionals who believe in cryptocurrency’s long-term value. The mayor’s Bitcoin salary strategy wasn’t without its challenges. He experienced periods when Bitcoin dipped below his entry price, yet he maintained his commitment to the digital currency. His persistence highlights an important lesson about cryptocurrency investing: short-term volatility often gives way to substantial long-term gains for those who stay the course. What Returns Has the Bitcoin Salary Generated? The results speak for themselves. Mayor Suarez’s Bitcoin salary has delivered impressive returns: 300% overall gain after four years of consistent Bitcoin salary payments 400% peak returns when Bitcoin reached approximately $120,000 Consistent growth despite market fluctuations These returns demonstrate the power of dollar-cost averaging through regular Bitcoin salary deposits. Rather than trying to time the market, the mayor consistently accumulated Bitcoin regardless of price movements, which smoothed out his average purchase price over time. Why Choose a Bitcoin Salary Over Traditional Payments? Mayor Suarez emphasizes that his focus isn’t on short-term price movements. Instead, he views his Bitcoin salary as exposure to what he believes is a superior store of value. This perspective aligns with many cryptocurrency advocates who see Bitcoin as digital gold – a hedge against inflation and traditional financial system risks. Choosing a Bitcoin salary requires considering several factors: Long-term investment horizon Risk tolerance for volatility Belief in cryptocurrency fundamentals Diversification from traditional assets The success of this Bitcoin salary approach has inspired other cities and individuals to explore similar compensation arrangements. However, it’s crucial to remember that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and cryptocurrency investments carry substantial risk. What Can We Learn From This Bitcoin Salary Success Story? Mayor Suarez’s Bitcoin salary experience offers valuable insights for anyone considering cryptocurrency exposure. His strategy demonstrates the importance of conviction during market downturns and the potential rewards of maintaining a long-term perspective. The 300% return on his Bitcoin salary validates his approach, though individual results may vary. This Bitcoin salary success story also highlights how traditional compensation models are evolving. As digital assets become more mainstream, we may see more employers offering Bitcoin salary options to attract forward-thinking talent. The key is understanding both the opportunities and risks involved in such arrangements. Frequently Asked Questions How does receiving a Bitcoin salary work technically? Employers typically convert the dollar amount of salary into Bitcoin at the current market rate and transfer it to the employee’s digital wallet on payday. Some use specialized payroll services that handle the conversion automatically. What are the tax implications of a Bitcoin salary? In most countries, Bitcoin salary is treated as property for tax purposes. You’ll owe taxes on the fair market value of Bitcoin received as ordinary income, plus capital gains tax when you sell or trade it. Is a Bitcoin salary suitable for everyone? No, a Bitcoin salary carries higher volatility risk than traditional currency. It’s best suited for those with strong risk tolerance, emergency savings in stable currencies, and long-term investment horizons. Can employers legally pay salaries in Bitcoin? Legality varies by jurisdiction. Some countries fully allow Bitcoin salary payments, while others have restrictions or require simultaneous payment in traditional currency. Always consult local regulations. How do you manage daily expenses with a Bitcoin salary? Most people convert portions to traditional currency as needed for expenses while keeping the remainder as investment. Some use Bitcoin debit cards or payment platforms that automatically convert cryptocurrency during transactions. What happens if Bitcoin price crashes after receiving salary? Like any volatile investment, value can decrease. This risk underscores why financial experts recommend keeping essential living expense funds in stable currencies and only investing what you can afford to lose. Found this Bitcoin salary success story inspiring? Share this article with others who might be interested in cryptocurrency compensation options and join the conversation about the future of digital payments! To learn more about the latest Bitcoin trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin institutional adoption. This post Incredible Bitcoin Salary Success: Miami Mayor Gains 300% Returns Over Four Years first appeared on BitcoinWorld . Bitcoin World